Brazil head into a tricky second match against Australia with pressure on their coach. The first game ended in a late draw, and the hosts believe they can cause another upset. The match kicks off at 12:00 on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, and it is part of the Friendlies calendar. Here is an easy guide to what happened last time, what to expect, and what the numbers say.
How the first match played out
The opening game gave the Socceroos a real scare to celebrate. They took the lead with 22 minutes of normal time left, and for a while they looked set for a rare win over the Selecao.
Brazil had other ideas. They found an equaliser in the 95th minute, and the ball went in off the crossbar. It was a lucky finish, but it saved them from defeat.
Australia coach Tony Popovic was not crushed by the result. He pointed to the quality of the opposition and took the positives. That is a fair view. Holding a side like Brazil for almost the whole game is never easy.
Why Australia may rotate
The AFC Asian Cup takes place in January. Popovic is already looking ahead to it. Because of that, he is expected to give younger players a chance in this second match.
This is also Australia’s last home game before the tournament. It takes place at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, where the hosts have not lost. They have played three games there, winning two and drawing one.
That record gives the home crowd something to cheer about. Still, changes to the lineup can cost a team its rhythm. Brazil will hope to take advantage of that.
The pressure on Carlo Ancelotti
Things are far less calm on the Brazilian side. Carlo Ancelotti arrived with big hopes that he could bring the national team back to its best. Those hopes have faded.
Brazil were outplayed by Norway in the World Cup Round of 16. Since then, patience among fans has worn thin. After 18 matches in charge, the Italian has the weakest record of any Brazil coach over the same number of games.
Brazil have also struggled away from home. They have won only four of their last 16 away matches, not counting games on neutral ground. They are winless in their last two outings as well.
So this game matters. A convincing win would ease some of the noise around the coach. Another flat display would make it louder.
What the numbers from game one tell us
The stats from the first meeting tell an interesting story. Brazil created more and finished less.
- Brazil recorded an expected goals figure of 1.24.
- Australia recorded 0.61.
- The Socceroos had seven shots, three on target and two big chances.
In simple terms, Brazil made the better chances but wasted them. Australia did not have much of the ball, yet they still found ways to get behind the visiting defence.
There is another useful pattern. Brazil have conceded in each of their last three matches. Australia’s last two games have also seen goals at both ends. That points to a match where each side could score.
Head to head history
History still favours Brazil. They have won six of the previous eight meetings. Australia have beaten them only once.
Brazil’s last five wins in this fixture all came by two or more goals. That shows how big the gap can be when the South Americans play well. The five time World Cup winners also have a deep squad, so rotation is unlikely to hurt them as much as it may hurt Australia.
The last game was different, though. It ended in a draw and was far closer than many expected.
Form guide
The table below sets out the recent picture in a simple way.
| Detail | Australia | Brazil |
|---|---|---|
| Recent run | Winless in last four | Winless in last two |
| Last game | Draw with Brazil | Draw with Australia |
| Venue record | Unbeaten in three at Suncorp Stadium | Four wins in last 16 away games |
| Expected goals last time | 0.61 | 1.24 |
Nestory Irankunda: the Australian to watch
If one player can hurt Brazil, it may be Nestory Irankunda. The 20 year old attacker was tipped to be a star for Australia at the World Cup.
He first made his name at Adelaide United. In the 2024/25 season, he scored eight goals and set up six more in 35 A League games. Last season at Watford, he was involved in eight goals in 40 Championship appearances.
He now plays for Sporting CP in Portugal. He had gone five games without a goal there, but a direct free kick ended that drought. The strike drew attention around the world and showed he can be dangerous from set pieces as well as in open play.
Irankunda was Australia’s best player in the first game. He had three shots in total. His pace can be a real problem for defenders who are not switched on.
Expected lineups
Australia are likely to start with Beach, Geria, Degenek, Adamson, Italiano, Yazbek, O’Neill, K. Boss, Velupillay, Irankunda and Younis.
Brazil’s expected side is Souza, Matheuzinho, Marquinhos, Vitor Reis, Santos, Guimaraes, Danilo Santos, Estevao, Raphinha, Vinicius Junior and Endrick.
These are only predictions. Team news can change close to kick off, so check for updates before the game starts.
What the experts are predicting
The source article gives a score prediction of Australia 1, Brazil 3. It names Irankunda as a likely scorer for the hosts. For Brazil, it points to Vinicius Junior, Raphinha and Estevao.
The three tips on offer are:
- Brazil to win with a handicap of minus 1, at odds of 1.76.
- Both teams to score, at odds of 1.79.
- Irankunda to score at any time, at odds of 4.80.
The reasoning behind each one is easy to follow. Brazil have a stronger squad and a record of winning by clear margins. Both sides have been scoring and conceding lately. Irankunda is in good form for his country and carries a genuine threat.
Remember that odds change, and no tip is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, as the 95th minute equaliser in game one showed.
Play safe
If you plan to bet, keep it simple. Set a budget you can afford to lose and stick to it. Never chase losses. Gambling is for adults only, and it should stay a bit of fun rather than a way to make money.
South Africans can find help and advice from the South African Responsible Gambling Foundation. You can also learn about the rules in the country through the National Gambling Board.
What to expect on the day
This looks like a game with a clear storyline. Brazil need a strong response and a proper win. Australia want to prove that the first result was no fluke, while also using the game to prepare for the Asian Cup.
The Socceroos will likely fight hard at home. Their unbeaten record at Suncorp Stadium gives them belief. But Brazil’s quality, their better chances in the first game, and the pressure on Ancelotti all point in one direction.
Many will back the visitors to bounce back. Even so, do not be surprised if Australia score again. The first match showed they can make Brazil uncomfortable.
Whatever happens, it should be an interesting watch. For fans in South Africa, the midday kick off makes it easy to follow during the working day.
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